MLS · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 67% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The MLS average is 61%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Cincinnati at 38%, the draw at 22% and Philadelphia Union at 40%, from expected goals of 1.89 and 1.94.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Cincinnati have 22 in 30 this season (10 of 15 at home), Philadelphia Union 21 in 30 (12 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 30 and 30 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 66% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 1.89 for FC Cincinnati and 1.94 for Philadelphia Union. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | 30 | 73% | 63% | 77% |
| Philadelphia Union | 30 | 70% | 50% | 70% |
Our numbers give this match a 78% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 43% of two or more. The MLS rates, last season and this season combined, are 78% and 41% (this season so far: 78% with a first-half goal, from 451 games). After the break: 81% for a goal and 56% for two or more (league 81% and 51%). FC Cincinnati's last 50 games had a first-half goal 72% of the time and a second-half goal 92%; Philadelphia Union's last 50, 84% and 74%. A goal in both halves: 64% (league 64%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 31%, level 23% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: FC Cincinnati season stats · Philadelphia Union season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.