FA WSL (W) · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 12:45. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The FA WSL (W) average is 55%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Everton W at 19%, the draw at 23% and Manchester United W at 58%, from expected goals of 0.96 and 1.87.
The league sets the starting point. FA WSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Everton W have 2 in 6 this season (1 of 2 at home), Manchester United W 4 in 6 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 0.96 for Everton W and 1.87 for Manchester United W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton W | 6 | 33% | 0% | 33% |
| Manchester United W | 6 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
Our numbers give this match a 78% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 39% of two or more. The FA WSL (W) rates, last season and this season combined, are 75% and 37% (this season so far: 79% with a first-half goal, from 42 games). After the break: 74% for a goal and 39% for two or more (league 76% and 45%). Everton W's last 50 games had a first-half goal 84% of the time and a second-half goal 76%; Manchester United W's last 50, 80% and 66%. A goal in both halves: 59% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 42%, first 33%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Everton W season stats · Manchester United W season stats · FA WSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.