Süper Lig · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 10:30. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Süper Lig average is 54%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Erzurumspor FK at 35%, the draw at 25% and Çorum FK at 40%, from expected goals of 1.45 and 1.58.
The league sets the starting point. Süper Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Erzurumspor FK have 3 in 8 this season (1 of 4 at home), Çorum FK 7 in 8 (4 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.45 for Erzurumspor FK and 1.58 for Çorum FK. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erzurumspor FK | 8 | 38% | 13% | 13% |
| Çorum FK | 8 | 88% | 38% | 63% |
Our numbers give this match a 69% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 35% of two or more. The Süper Lig rates, last season and this season combined, are 69% and 34% (this season so far: 76% with a first-half goal, from 72 games). After the break: 81% for a goal and 50% for two or more (league 80% and 48%). Erzurumspor FK's last 50 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 90%; Çorum FK's last 50, 74% and 78%. A goal in both halves: 57% (league 57%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 28%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Erzurumspor FK season stats · Çorum FK season stats · Süper Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.