First League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 14:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia (First League, Saturday, 31 October 2026) 50% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with Dunav Ruse 13%, the draw 22% and Levski Sofia 65%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | – |
| Both teams to score | 48% | No |
| Dunav Ruse win | 13% | |
| Draw | 22% | |
| Levski Sofia win | 65% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 52% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunav Ruse | 12 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| Levski Sofia | 10 | 60% | 20% | 40% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | 64% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 26% | 28% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 41% | 37% |
| Goal in both halves | 52% | 51% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dunav Ruse | 83% | 100% | 12 |
| Levski Sofia | 54% | 82% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 69% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Dunav Ruse season stats · Levski Sofia season stats · First League table and form
League. First League has had over 2.5 goals in 44% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Dunav Ruse 8 of 12 (2 of 6 at home), Levski Sofia 6 of 10 (3 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 52% and 49%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 52% and 49%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 49%.
Goal model. Expected goals 0.73 (Dunav Ruse) v 1.93 (Levski Sofia) give 50%; 30% weight: 49%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 50%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.