Damallsvenskan (W) · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Damallsvenskan (W) average is 64%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Djurgården W at 57%, the draw at 22% and Vittsjö W at 21%, from expected goals of 2.05 and 1.19.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Djurgården W have 13 in 22 this season (5 of 11 at home), Vittsjö W 11 in 22 (7 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 22 and 22 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 65% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.05 for Djurgården W and 1.19 for Vittsjö W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Djurgården W | 22 | 59% | 32% | 45% |
| Vittsjö W | 22 | 50% | 23% | 55% |
Our numbers give this match a 77% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 39% of two or more. The Damallsvenskan (W) rates, last season and this season combined, are 79% and 43% (this season so far: 79% with a first-half goal, from 154 games). After the break: 86% for a goal and 59% for two or more (league 83% and 54%). Djurgården W's last 50 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 88%; Vittsjö W's last 50, 78% and 92%. A goal in both halves: 66% (league 65%). Highest-scoring half: second 47%, first 30%, level 23% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Djurgården W season stats · Vittsjö W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.