USL Championship · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 00:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic (USL Championship, Saturday, 31 October 2026) 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with Detroit City 41%, the draw 36% and Hartford Athletic 23%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | – |
| Both teams to score | 47% | No |
| Detroit City win | 41% | Pick |
| Draw | 36% | |
| Hartford Athletic win | 23% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | |
| Goal in both halves | 50% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit City | 30 | 33% | 10% | 37% |
| Hartford Athletic | 30 | 47% | 23% | 53% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | 68% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 29% | 33% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 36% | 45% |
| Goal in both halves | 50% | 54% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit City | 50% | 64% | 50 |
| Hartford Athletic | 72% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 66% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Detroit City season stats · Hartford Athletic season stats · USL Championship table and form
League. USL Championship has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Detroit City 10 of 30 (3 of 15 at home), Hartford Athletic 14 of 30 (4 of 15 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 41% and 48%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 40% and 48%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 45%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 33% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 45%.
Goal model. Expected goals 0.95 (Detroit City) v 0.64 (Hartford Athletic) give 21%; 30% weight: 38%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 40%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.