Liga Profesional · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 33% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Profesional average is 35%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% | 89% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 39% | 61% | No |
The result model puts Deportivo Riestra at 45%, the draw at 35% and Talleres Cordoba at 20%, from expected goals of 1 and 0.56.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportivo Riestra have 3 in 29 this season (2 of 15 at home), Talleres Cordoba 14 in 30 (7 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 22% and 42%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 29 and 30 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 24% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 32%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 31%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 21%, from expected goals of 1 for Deportivo Riestra and 0.56 for Talleres Cordoba. Folding in 30% of that view gives 28%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Riestra | 29 | 10% | 0% | 28% |
| Talleres Cordoba | 30 | 47% | 17% | 47% |
Our numbers give this match a 56% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 21% of two or more. The Liga Profesional rates, last season and this season combined, are 59% and 21% (this season so far: 61% with a first-half goal, from 450 games). After the break: 69% for a goal and 27% for two or more (league 71% and 34%). Deportivo Riestra's last 50 games had a first-half goal 54% of the time and a second-half goal 62%; Talleres Cordoba's last 50, 50% and 72%. A goal in both halves: 40% (league 44%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 26%, level 30% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Deportivo Riestra season stats · Talleres Cordoba season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.