First League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 17:30 UK time
CompactStats rates CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia (First League, Saturday, 31 October 2026) 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with CSKA Sofia 59%, the draw 24% and Slavia Sofia 16%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | – |
| Both teams to score | 47% | No |
| CSKA Sofia win | 59% | Pick |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Slavia Sofia win | 16% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 55% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 11 | 64% | 45% | 64% |
| Slavia Sofia | 12 | 25% | 0% | 42% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | 64% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 30% | 28% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 34% | 37% |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | 51% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 70% | 84% | 50 |
| Slavia Sofia | 62% | 78% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 69% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: CSKA Sofia season stats · Slavia Sofia season stats · First League table and form
League. First League has had over 2.5 goals in 44% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. CSKA Sofia 7 of 11 (5 of 5 at home), Slavia Sofia 3 of 12 (1 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 50% and 38%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 41% and 42%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 42%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 17% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 41%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.71 (CSKA Sofia) v 0.76 (Slavia Sofia) give 45%; 30% weight: 42%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 44%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.