Liga I · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 43% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga I average is 46%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Corvinul Hunedoara at 43%, the draw at 29% and Arges Pitesti at 28%, from expected goals of 1.31 and 1.
The league sets the starting point. Liga I has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Corvinul Hunedoara have 4 in 12 this season (3 of 6 at home), Arges Pitesti 2 in 12 (2 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 36%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 42% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.31 for Corvinul Hunedoara and 1 for Arges Pitesti. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corvinul Hunedoara | 12 | 33% | 17% | 33% |
| Arges Pitesti | 12 | 17% | 17% | 33% |
Our numbers give this match a 62% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 29% of two or more. The Liga I rates, last season and this season combined, are 67% and 34% (this season so far: 65% with a first-half goal, from 97 games). After the break: 75% for a goal and 40% for two or more (league 77% and 44%). Corvinul Hunedoara's last 18 games had a first-half goal 56% of the time and a second-half goal 72%; Arges Pitesti's last 50, 52% and 70%. A goal in both halves: 43% (league 51%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 30%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Corvinul Hunedoara season stats · Arges Pitesti season stats · Liga I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.