Primera Division · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 21:00 UK time. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Division average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Comerciantes Unidos at 49%, the draw at 28% and ADT at 24%, from expected goals of 1.43 and 0.91.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Comerciantes Unidos have 15 in 29 this season (5 of 14 at home), ADT 14 in 29 (7 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 29 and 29 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.43 for Comerciantes Unidos and 0.91 for ADT. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comerciantes Unidos | 29 | 52% | 41% | 66% |
| ADT | 29 | 48% | 28% | 52% |
Our numbers give this match a 66% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 33% of two or more. The Primera Division rates, last season and this season combined, are 70% and 34% (this season so far: 69% with a first-half goal, from 262 games). After the break: 77% for a goal and 41% for two or more (league 78% and 44%). Comerciantes Unidos's last 50 games had a first-half goal 60% of the time and a second-half goal 76%; ADT's last 50, 62% and 72%. A goal in both halves: 48% (league 55%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 30%, level 24% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Comerciantes Unidos season stats · ADT season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.