Primera Clausura · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 22:30 UK time. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Clausura average is 43%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 17%, the draw at 26% and Libertad Asuncion at 57%, from expected goals of 0.7 and 1.56.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Clausura has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Club Sp. San Lorenzo have 14 in 37 this season (7 of 18 at home), Libertad Asuncion 18 in 38 (9 of 19 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 40% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 37 and 38 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 40% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 0.7 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 1.56 for Libertad Asuncion. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 37 | 38% | 19% | 41% |
| Libertad Asuncion | 38 | 47% | 24% | 47% |
Our numbers give this match a 65% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 32% of two or more. The Primera Clausura rates, last season and this season combined, are 66% and 28% (this season so far: 68% with a first-half goal, from 92 games). After the break: 80% for a goal and 41% for two or more (league 80% and 43%). Club Sp. San Lorenzo's last 37 games had a first-half goal 62% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; Libertad Asuncion's last 50, 66% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 52% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 26%, level 29% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Club Sp. San Lorenzo season stats · Libertad Asuncion season stats · Primera Clausura table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.