Segunda · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Segunda average is 50%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Celta de Vigo II at 37%, the draw at 23% and Cordoba at 40%, from expected goals of 1.67 and 1.74.
The league sets the starting point. Segunda has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Celta de Vigo II have 5 in 10 this season (4 of 6 at home), Cordoba 8 in 10 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 1.67 for Celta de Vigo II and 1.74 for Cordoba. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta de Vigo II | 10 | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Cordoba | 10 | 80% | 50% | 80% |
Our numbers give this match a 69% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 38% of two or more. The Segunda rates, last season and this season combined, are 68% and 34% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 110 games). After the break: 77% for a goal and 50% for two or more (league 75% and 45%). Celta de Vigo II's last 50 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; Cordoba's last 50, 68% and 78%. A goal in both halves: 54% (league 52%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 30%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Celta de Vigo II season stats · Cordoba season stats · Segunda table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.