Premijer Liga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 46% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premijer Liga average is 38%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Čelik at 18%, the draw at 24% and Borac Banja Luka at 59%, from expected goals of 0.87 and 1.79.
The league sets the starting point. Premijer Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 38% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Čelik have 6 in 10 this season (4 of 5 at home), Borac Banja Luka 4 in 9 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 40%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 44% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 0.87 for Čelik and 1.79 for Borac Banja Luka. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Čelik | 10 | 60% | 20% | 50% |
| Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 44% | 33% | 44% |
Our numbers give this match a 62% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 28% of two or more. The Premijer Liga rates, last season and this season combined, are 59% and 28% (this season so far: 61% with a first-half goal, from 49 games). After the break: 74% for a goal and 40% for two or more (league 71% and 32%). Čelik's last 38 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 84%; Borac Banja Luka's last 50, 68% and 76%. A goal in both halves: 49% (league 42%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 29%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Čelik season stats · Borac Banja Luka season stats · Premijer Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.