Cymru Premier · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 12:30. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Cymru Premier average is 55%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Cardiff MET at 32%, the draw at 22% and Penybont at 46%, from expected goals of 1.66 and 2.02.
The league sets the starting point. Cymru Premier has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cardiff MET have 7 in 13 this season (6 of 7 at home), Penybont 8 in 13 (4 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 57%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 1.66 for Cardiff MET and 2.02 for Penybont. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff MET | 13 | 54% | 46% | 38% |
| Penybont | 13 | 62% | 31% | 62% |
Our numbers give this match a 72% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The Cymru Premier rates, last season and this season combined, are 74% and 38% (this season so far: 79% with a first-half goal, from 104 games). After the break: 77% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 77% and 50%). Cardiff MET's last 50 games had a first-half goal 72% of the time and a second-half goal 86%; Penybont's last 50, 66% and 70%. A goal in both halves: 58% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 28%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Cardiff MET season stats · Penybont season stats · Cymru Premier table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.