1. Lig · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The 1. Lig average is 52%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Bursaspor at 35%, the draw at 30% and Bandırmaspor at 35%, from expected goals of 1.09 and 1.1.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bursaspor have 8 in 11 this season (3 of 5 at home), Bandırmaspor 3 in 11 (1 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 44%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.09 for Bursaspor and 1.1 for Bandırmaspor. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor | 11 | 73% | 18% | 55% |
| Bandırmaspor | 11 | 27% | 9% | 45% |
Our numbers give this match a 70% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 34% of two or more. The 1. Lig rates, last season and this season combined, are 71% and 37% (this season so far: 72% with a first-half goal, from 109 games). After the break: 78% for a goal and 46% for two or more (league 80% and 50%). Bursaspor's last 50 games had a first-half goal 76% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; Bandırmaspor's last 50, 62% and 70%. A goal in both halves: 54% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 29%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Bursaspor season stats · Bandırmaspor season stats · 1. Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.