NB I · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The NB I average is 59%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Budapest Honved at 37%, the draw at 27% and Kisvarda FC at 36%, from expected goals of 1.35 and 1.33.
The league sets the starting point. NB I has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Budapest Honved have 5 in 9 this season (2 of 4 at home), Kisvarda FC 3 in 10 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.35 for Budapest Honved and 1.33 for Kisvarda FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budapest Honved | 9 | 56% | 44% | 78% |
| Kisvarda FC | 10 | 30% | 10% | 70% |
Our numbers give this match a 67% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 37% of two or more. The NB I rates, last season and this season combined, are 69% and 39% (this season so far: 68% with a first-half goal, from 59 games). After the break: 82% for a goal and 43% for two or more (league 86% and 48%). Budapest Honved's last 50 games had a first-half goal 62% of the time and a second-half goal 70%; Kisvarda FC's last 50, 66% and 78%. A goal in both halves: 52% (league 60%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 30%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Budapest Honved season stats · Kisvarda FC season stats · NB I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.