Damallsvenskan (W) · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Damallsvenskan (W) average is 64%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Brommapojkarna W at 50%, the draw at 22% and AIK W at 28%, from expected goals of 2.03 and 1.49.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Brommapojkarna W have 14 in 22 this season (8 of 11 at home), AIK W 15 in 22 (8 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 22 and 22 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 66% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 2.03 for Brommapojkarna W and 1.49 for AIK W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brommapojkarna W | 22 | 64% | 27% | 55% |
| AIK W | 22 | 68% | 27% | 59% |
Our numbers give this match a 80% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 44% of two or more. The Damallsvenskan (W) rates, last season and this season combined, are 79% and 43% (this season so far: 79% with a first-half goal, from 154 games). After the break: 83% for a goal and 52% for two or more (league 83% and 54%). Brommapojkarna W's last 50 games had a first-half goal 86% of the time and a second-half goal 90%; AIK W's last 50, 78% and 74%. A goal in both halves: 65% (league 65%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 32%, level 22% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Brommapojkarna W season stats · AIK W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.