First League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The First League average is 45%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Botev Plovdiv at 50%, the draw at 24% and Dunav Ruse at 26%, from expected goals of 1.79 and 1.22.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Botev Plovdiv have 5 in 11 this season (2 of 6 at home), Dunav Ruse 8 in 11 (6 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.79 for Botev Plovdiv and 1.22 for Dunav Ruse. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv | 11 | 45% | 36% | 45% |
| Dunav Ruse | 11 | 73% | 36% | 73% |
Our numbers give this match a 67% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 31% of two or more. The First League rates, last season and this season combined, are 64% and 28% (this season so far: 68% with a first-half goal, from 76 games). After the break: 78% for a goal and 44% for two or more (league 75% and 38%). Botev Plovdiv's last 50 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; Dunav Ruse's last 11, 82% and 100%. A goal in both halves: 55% (league 51%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 28%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Botev Plovdiv season stats · Dunav Ruse season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.