Bundesliga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Bundesliga average is 65%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Borussia Mönchengladbach at 48%, the draw at 23% and SC Paderborn 07 at 29%, from expected goals of 1.87 and 1.42.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Borussia Mönchengladbach have 6 in 6 this season (3 of 3 at home), SC Paderborn 07 3 in 6 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 72% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 1.87 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.42 for SC Paderborn 07. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 6 | 100% | 50% | 67% |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 6 | 50% | 33% | 33% |
Our numbers give this match a 76% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 43% of two or more. The Bundesliga rates, last season and this season combined, are 77% and 43% (this season so far: 83% with a first-half goal, from 54 games). After the break: 86% for a goal and 55% for two or more (league 86% and 58%). Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 50 games had a first-half goal 72% of the time and a second-half goal 86%; SC Paderborn 07's last 50, 76% and 86%. A goal in both halves: 68% (league 68%). Highest-scoring half: second 47%, first 27%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Borussia Mönchengladbach season stats · SC Paderborn 07 season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.