Ligat Ha'al · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligat Ha'al average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Beitar Jerusalem at 58%, the draw at 22% and Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 20%, from expected goals of 1.95 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. Ligat Ha'al has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Beitar Jerusalem have 5 in 7 this season (3 of 4 at home), Ironi Kiryat Shmona 4 in 7 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.95 for Beitar Jerusalem and 1.05 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beitar Jerusalem | 7 | 71% | 43% | 43% |
| Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 7 | 57% | 43% | 43% |
Our numbers give this match a 69% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 38% of two or more. The Ligat Ha'al rates, last season and this season combined, are 67% and 36% (this season so far: 65% with a first-half goal, from 49 games). After the break: 80% for a goal and 51% for two or more (league 79% and 52%). Beitar Jerusalem's last 50 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 80%; Ironi Kiryat Shmona's last 50, 72% and 86%. A goal in both halves: 59% (league 54%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 29%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Beitar Jerusalem season stats · Ironi Kiryat Shmona season stats · Ligat Ha'al table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.