Bundesliga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 70% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Bundesliga average is 65%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Bayern München at 66%, the draw at 18% and Borussia Dortmund at 16%, from expected goals of 2.54 and 1.2.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bayern München have 5 in 6 this season (3 of 3 at home), Borussia Dortmund 3 in 6 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 78% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 72%, from expected goals of 2.54 for Bayern München and 1.2 for Borussia Dortmund. Folding in 30% of that view gives 70%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 6 | 83% | 67% | 67% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 50% | 33% | 33% |
Our numbers give this match a 79% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 45% of two or more. The Bundesliga rates, last season and this season combined, are 77% and 43% (this season so far: 83% with a first-half goal, from 54 games). After the break: 87% for a goal and 67% for two or more (league 86% and 58%). Bayern München's last 50 games had a first-half goal 82% of the time and a second-half goal 98%; Borussia Dortmund's last 50, 78% and 84%. A goal in both halves: 71% (league 68%). Highest-scoring half: second 47%, first 28%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Bayern München season stats · Borussia Dortmund season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.