Championship · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Championship average is 43%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Ayr Utd at 42%, the draw at 32% and Queen's Park at 26%, from expected goals of 1.13 and 0.81.
The league sets the starting point. Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ayr Utd have 2 in 11 this season (1 of 6 at home), Queen's Park 4 in 11 (1 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 35% and 41%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 40% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 58%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 1.13 for Ayr Utd and 0.81 for Queen's Park. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr Utd | 11 | 18% | 9% | 45% |
| Queen's Park | 11 | 36% | 0% | 36% |
Our numbers give this match a 73% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 34% of two or more. The Championship rates, last season and this season combined, are 70% and 30% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 54 games). After the break: 66% for a goal and 35% for two or more (league 67% and 38%). Ayr Utd's last 50 games had a first-half goal 78% of the time and a second-half goal 62%; Queen's Park's last 50, 76% and 66%. A goal in both halves: 51% (league 50%). Highest-scoring half: second 40%, first 32%, level 28% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Ayr Utd season stats · Queen's Park season stats · Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.