Liga MX · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 01:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Liga MX average is 55%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Atletico San Luis at 32%, the draw at 25% and Atlas at 43%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 1.65.
The league sets the starting point. Liga MX has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atletico San Luis have 9 in 13 this season (5 of 7 at home), Atlas 6 in 13 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Atletico San Luis and 1.65 for Atlas. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico San Luis | 13 | 69% | 38% | 69% |
| Atlas | 13 | 46% | 38% | 69% |
Our numbers give this match a 71% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 40% of two or more. The Liga MX rates are 72% and 40%. After the break: 79% for a goal and 51% for two or more (league 78% and 48%). Atletico San Luis's last 50 games had a first-half goal 62% of the time and a second-half goal 88%; Atlas's last 50, 76% and 70%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Atletico San Luis season stats · Atlas season stats · Liga MX table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.