Primera Nacional · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 33% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Nacional average is 31%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 87% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 60% | No |
The result model puts Atletico DE Rafaela at 48%, the draw at 31% and Patronato at 21%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 0.7.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 31% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atletico DE Rafaela have 10 in 34 this season (6 of 17 at home), Patronato 8 in 34 (3 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 30% and 26%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 34 and 34 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 30% and 27%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 29%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 1.23 for Atletico DE Rafaela and 0.7 for Patronato. Folding in 30% of that view gives 29%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 34 | 29% | 15% | 32% |
| Patronato | 34 | 24% | 9% | 32% |
Our numbers give this match a 54% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 18% of two or more. The Primera Nacional rates, last season and this season combined, are 56% and 20% (this season so far: 56% with a first-half goal, from 612 games). After the break: 66% for a goal and 27% for two or more (league 68% and 28%). Atletico DE Rafaela's last 50 games had a first-half goal 50% of the time and a second-half goal 62%; Patronato's last 50, 54% and 64%. A goal in both halves: 39% (league 40%). Highest-scoring half: second 42%, first 27%, level 31% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Atletico DE Rafaela season stats · Patronato season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.