Championship · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Championship average is 43%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Arbroath at 39%, the draw at 34% and Raith Rovers at 28%, from expected goals of 1 and 0.79.
The league sets the starting point. Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Arbroath have 5 in 11 this season (2 of 5 at home), Raith Rovers 3 in 11 (2 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 38%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 43% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 89%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 27%, from expected goals of 1 for Arbroath and 0.79 for Raith Rovers. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath | 11 | 45% | 9% | 36% |
| Raith Rovers | 11 | 27% | 9% | 36% |
Our numbers give this match a 68% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 29% of two or more. The Championship rates, last season and this season combined, are 70% and 30% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 54 games). After the break: 66% for a goal and 39% for two or more (league 67% and 38%). Arbroath's last 50 games had a first-half goal 62% of the time and a second-half goal 62%; Raith Rovers's last 50, 68% and 64%. A goal in both halves: 47% (league 50%). Highest-scoring half: second 41%, first 30%, level 29% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Arbroath season stats · Raith Rovers season stats · Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.