National League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The National League average is 58%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Altrincham at 36%, the draw at 27% and Carlisle at 36%, from expected goals of 1.29 and 1.29.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Altrincham have 10 in 13 this season (6 of 6 at home), Carlisle 7 in 13 (2 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.29 for Altrincham and 1.29 for Carlisle. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham | 13 | 77% | 31% | 69% |
| Carlisle | 13 | 54% | 46% | 77% |
Our numbers give this match a 75% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 38% of two or more. The National League rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 36% (this season so far: 74% with a first-half goal, from 155 games). After the break: 80% for a goal and 46% for two or more (league 82% and 51%). Altrincham's last 50 games had a first-half goal 76% of the time and a second-half goal 76%; Carlisle's last 50, 82% and 76%. A goal in both halves: 59% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 31%, level 23% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Altrincham season stats · Carlisle season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.