National League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The National League average is 58%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Aldershot Town at 62%, the draw at 20% and Gateshead at 18%, from expected goals of 2.31 and 1.2.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Aldershot Town have 6 in 13 this season (3 of 6 at home), Gateshead 8 in 13 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 2.31 for Aldershot Town and 1.2 for Gateshead. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldershot Town | 13 | 46% | 31% | 69% |
| Gateshead | 13 | 62% | 31% | 46% |
Our numbers give this match a 75% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 38% of two or more. The National League rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 36% (this season so far: 74% with a first-half goal, from 155 games). After the break: 82% for a goal and 46% for two or more (league 82% and 51%). Aldershot Town's last 50 games had a first-half goal 76% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; Gateshead's last 50, 82% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 62% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 30%, level 24% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Aldershot Town season stats · Gateshead season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.