J2 League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 05:00. Our rating makes this 46% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The J2 League average is 46%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Albirex Niigata at 41%, the draw at 30% and Kataller Toyama at 30%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 0.99.
The league sets the starting point. J2 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Albirex Niigata have 8 in 12 this season (4 of 6 at home), Kataller Toyama 6 in 12 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.21 for Albirex Niigata and 0.99 for Kataller Toyama. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albirex Niigata | 12 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| Kataller Toyama | 12 | 50% | 33% | 42% |
Our numbers give this match a 70% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 31% of two or more. The J2 League rates are 67% and 30%. After the break: 75% for a goal and 39% for two or more (league 76% and 40%). Albirex Niigata's last 50 games had a first-half goal 78% of the time and a second-half goal 72%; Kataller Toyama's last 50, 68% and 78%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Albirex Niigata season stats · Kataller Toyama season stats · J2 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.