Pro League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 13:30. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Al Taawon at 26%, the draw at 27% and Al-Ettifaq at 47%, from expected goals of 1.05 and 1.49.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al Taawon have 4 in 10 this season (1 of 5 at home), Al-Ettifaq 5 in 10 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.05 for Al Taawon and 1.49 for Al-Ettifaq. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Taawon | 10 | 40% | 20% | 30% |
| Al-Ettifaq | 10 | 50% | 40% | 50% |
Our numbers give this match a 72% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 39% of two or more. The Pro League rates, last season and this season combined, are 75% and 40% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 87 games). After the break: 80% for a goal and 51% for two or more (league 79% and 49%). Al Taawon's last 50 games had a first-half goal 68% of the time and a second-half goal 80%; Al-Ettifaq's last 50, 70% and 84%. A goal in both halves: 59% (league 60%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 30%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Al Taawon season stats · Al-Ettifaq season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.