Pro League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 72%, the draw at 17% and Al-Fateh at 11%, from expected goals of 2.37 and 0.8.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have 6 in 9 this season (3 of 5 at home), Al-Fateh 7 in 11 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 2.37 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.8 for Al-Fateh. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 9 | 67% | 44% | 33% |
| Al-Fateh | 11 | 64% | 45% | 55% |
Our numbers give this match a 77% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 40% of two or more. The Pro League rates, last season and this season combined, are 75% and 40% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 88 games). After the break: 79% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 79% and 49%). Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 50 games had a first-half goal 88% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; Al-Fateh's last 50, 74% and 74%. A goal in both halves: 63% (league 60%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 30%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Al-Hilal Saudi FC season stats · Al-Fateh season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.