Liga 2 · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga 2 average is 45%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Tondela at 49%, the draw at 30% and Felgueiras 1932 at 21%, from expected goals of 1.27 and 0.72.
The league sets the starting point. Liga 2 has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tondela have 2 in 7 this season (2 of 4 at home), Felgueiras 1932 2 in 7 (0 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 41% and 41%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 46% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 32%, from expected goals of 1.27 for Tondela and 0.72 for Felgueiras 1932. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela | 7 | 29% | 0% | 14% |
| Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 29% | 0% | 57% |
Our numbers give this match a 64% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 27% of two or more. The Liga 2 rates are 66% and 27%. After the break: 75% for a goal and 40% for two or more (league 75% and 41%). Tondela's last 50 games had a first-half goal 58% of the time and a second-half goal 76%; Felgueiras 1932's last 50, 66% and 74%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Tondela season stats · Felgueiras 1932 season stats · Liga 2 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.