USL Championship · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 23:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC (USL Championship, Friday, 30 October 2026) 54% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with Tampa Bay Rowdies 55%, the draw 23% and Miami FC 22%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | – |
| Both teams to score | 54% | Yes |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies win | 55% | Pick |
| Draw | 23% | |
| Miami FC win | 22% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 55% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | 43% | 30% | 40% |
| Miami FC | 30 | 57% | 33% | 57% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | 68% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 33% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 49% | 45% |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | 54% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 72% | 78% | 50 |
| Miami FC | 62% | 80% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 66% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Tampa Bay Rowdies season stats · Miami FC season stats · USL Championship table and form
League. USL Championship has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Tampa Bay Rowdies 13 of 30 (9 of 15 at home), Miami FC 17 of 30 (7 of 15 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 46% and 54%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 49% and 52%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 51%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 83% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 52%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.85 (Tampa Bay Rowdies) v 1.09 (Miami FC) give 56%; 30% weight: 53%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 54%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.