Bundesliga · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Bundesliga average is 65%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts SV Elversberg at 27%, the draw at 21% and FSV Mainz 05 at 52%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 2.2.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SV Elversberg have 4 in 6 this season (3 of 3 at home), FSV Mainz 05 4 in 6 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 62% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 72%, from expected goals of 1.55 for SV Elversberg and 2.2 for FSV Mainz 05. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Elversberg | 6 | 67% | 50% | 67% |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 67% | 67% | 50% |
Our numbers give this match a 78% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 42% of two or more. The Bundesliga rates are 77% and 43%. After the break: 85% for a goal and 52% for two or more (league 86% and 58%). SV Elversberg's last 50 games had a first-half goal 76% of the time and a second-half goal 90%; FSV Mainz 05's last 50, 80% and 80%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: SV Elversberg season stats · FSV Mainz 05 season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.