Championship · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Championship average is 43%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Stenhousemuir at 33%, the draw at 31% and Livingston at 36%, from expected goals of 1 and 1.07.
The league sets the starting point. Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stenhousemuir have 1 in 10 this season (1 of 5 at home), Livingston 4 in 11 (1 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 33% and 41%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 36% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1 for Stenhousemuir and 1.07 for Livingston. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stenhousemuir | 10 | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Livingston | 11 | 36% | 18% | 36% |
Our numbers give this match a 70% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 30% of two or more. The Championship rates are 70% and 30%. After the break: 68% for a goal and 37% for two or more (league 67% and 38%). Stenhousemuir's last 50 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 68%; Livingston's last 50, 74% and 72%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Stenhousemuir season stats · Livingston season stats · Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.