2. Liga · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Liga average is 52%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts SKN ST. Polten at 56%, the draw at 24% and WSPG Wels at 20%, from expected goals of 1.81 and 1.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SKN ST. Polten have 3 in 9 this season (1 of 5 at home), WSPG Wels 6 in 9 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 53% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.81 for SKN ST. Polten and 1 for WSPG Wels. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKN ST. Polten | 9 | 33% | 22% | 33% |
| WSPG Wels | 9 | 67% | 56% | 78% |
Our numbers give this match a 69% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 39% of two or more. The 2. Liga rates are 73% and 39%. After the break: 77% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 76% and 43%). SKN ST. Polten's last 50 games had a first-half goal 62% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; WSPG Wels's last 40, 68% and 80%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: SKN ST. Polten season stats · WSPG Wels season stats · 2. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.