Premier Division · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premier Division average is 48%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Shelbourne at 49%, the draw at 23% and Waterford at 28%, from expected goals of 1.92 and 1.43.
The league sets the starting point. Premier Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Shelbourne have 21 in 34 this season (12 of 17 at home), Waterford 17 in 34 (10 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 34 and 34 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 36%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.92 for Shelbourne and 1.43 for Waterford. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelbourne | 34 | 62% | 29% | 74% |
| Waterford | 34 | 50% | 41% | 62% |
Our numbers give this match a 72% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 37% of two or more. The Premier Division rates are 73% and 33%. After the break: 74% for a goal and 44% for two or more (league 72% and 41%). Shelbourne's last 50 games had a first-half goal 62% of the time and a second-half goal 76%; Waterford's last 50, 82% and 78%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Shelbourne season stats · Waterford season stats · Premier Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.