Championship · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Championship average is 53%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Sheffield Utd at 43%, the draw at 26% and Wrexham at 31%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 1.27.
The league sets the starting point. Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sheffield Utd have 7 in 11 this season (3 of 5 at home), Wrexham 6 in 11 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.55 for Sheffield Utd and 1.27 for Wrexham. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd | 11 | 64% | 36% | 55% |
| Wrexham | 11 | 55% | 18% | 73% |
Our numbers give this match a 73% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 37% of two or more. The Championship rates are 72% and 35%. After the break: 78% for a goal and 51% for two or more (league 77% and 44%). Sheffield Utd's last 50 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; Wrexham's last 50, 78% and 80%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Sheffield Utd season stats · Wrexham season stats · Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.