Premier League · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 16:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar (Premier League, Friday, 30 October 2026) 54% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with Shakhtar Donetsk 84%, the draw 12% and Obolon'-Brovar 4%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | – |
| Both teams to score | 41% | No |
| Shakhtar Donetsk win | 84% | Pick |
| Draw | 12% | |
| Obolon'-Brovar win | 4% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | |
| Goal in both halves | 54% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 10 | 50% | 10% | 30% |
| Obolon'-Brovar | 9 | 44% | 22% | 22% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | 68% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 31% | 30% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 44% | 41% |
| Goal in both halves | 54% | 55% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 41% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 66% | 86% | 50 |
| Obolon'-Brovar | 66% | 64% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 66% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Shakhtar Donetsk season stats · Obolon'-Brovar season stats · Premier League table and form
League. Premier League has had over 2.5 goals in 47% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Shakhtar Donetsk 5 of 10 (3 of 6 at home), Obolon'-Brovar 4 of 9 (4 of 8 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 48% and 46%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 52% and 49%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 50%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 80% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 51%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.62 (Shakhtar Donetsk) v 0.43 (Obolon'-Brovar) give 59%; 30% weight: 53%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 54%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.