Eerste Divisie · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 66% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The Eerste Divisie average is 64%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 34% | Yes |
The result model puts Roda at 40%, the draw at 22% and Jong AZ at 38%, from expected goals of 1.94 and 1.91.
The league sets the starting point. Eerste Divisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Roda have 3 in 11 this season (2 of 5 at home), Jong AZ 8 in 11 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 67%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 1.94 for Roda and 1.91 for Jong AZ. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 79% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 44% of two or more. The Eerste Divisie rates are 77% and 42%. After the break: 85% for a goal and 56% for two or more (league 85% and 55%). Roda's last 50 games had a first-half goal 74% of the time and a second-half goal 84%; Jong AZ's last 50, 90% and 84%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Roda season stats · Jong AZ season stats · Eerste Divisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.