Challenge League · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 18:30. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Challenge League average is 61%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Rapperswil at 60%, the draw at 23% and Stade Nyonnais at 17%, from expected goals of 1.82 and 0.86.
The league sets the starting point. Challenge League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rapperswil have 6 in 10 this season (2 of 5 at home), Stade Nyonnais 8 in 10 (4 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 67%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.82 for Rapperswil and 0.86 for Stade Nyonnais. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapperswil | 10 | 60% | 20% | 50% |
| Stade Nyonnais | 10 | 80% | 40% | 60% |
Our numbers give this match a 73% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 45% of two or more. The Challenge League rates are 72% and 46%. After the break: 81% for a goal and 45% for two or more (league 81% and 48%). Rapperswil's last 50 games had a first-half goal 74% of the time and a second-half goal 86%; Stade Nyonnais's last 50, 72% and 78%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Rapperswil season stats · Stade Nyonnais season stats · Challenge League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.