HNL · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 17:00 UK time
CompactStats rates NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 (HNL, Friday, 30 October 2026) 56% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with NK Slaven Belupo 39%, the draw 24% and Istra 1961 37%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | – |
| Both teams to score | 57% | Yes |
| NK Slaven Belupo win | 39% | Pick |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Istra 1961 win | 37% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 78% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 64% |
In the app: live scores, every market including half-time goals, sortable tables and a slip you can share.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Slaven Belupo | 11 | 73% | 36% | 55% |
| Istra 1961 | 10 | 70% | 60% | 60% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 78% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 44% | 39% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 40% | 41% |
| Goal in both halves | 64% | 61% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 40% | 2nd 38% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Slaven Belupo | 80% | 84% | 50 |
| Istra 1961 | 80% | 70% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 73% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: NK Slaven Belupo season stats · Istra 1961 season stats · HNL table and form
League. HNL has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. NK Slaven Belupo 8 of 11 (4 of 5 at home), Istra 1961 7 of 10 (3 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 57% and 56%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 56% and 52%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 53%.
Head to head. 12 meetings in 3 years, 42% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 53%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.66 (NK Slaven Belupo) v 1.62 (Istra 1961) give 64%; 30% weight: 56%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.