Premiere Ligue (W) · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 20:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Marseille W vs Nantes W (Premiere Ligue (W), Friday, 30 October 2026) 60% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Marseille W 30%, the draw 24% and Nantes W 46%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | Yes |
| Marseille W win | 30% | |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Nantes W win | 46% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 76% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 57% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille W | 6 | 67% | 50% | 50% |
| Nantes W | 6 | 17% | 17% | 50% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 76% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 39% | 40% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 47% | 50% |
| Goal in both halves | 57% | 61% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 42% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille W | 71% | 75% | 28 |
| Nantes W | 78% | 68% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 85% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Marseille W season stats · Nantes W season stats · Premiere Ligue (W) table and form
League. Premiere Ligue (W) has had over 2.5 goals in 58% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Marseille W 4 of 6 (2 of 3 at home), Nantes W 1 of 6 (0 of 3 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 60% and 50%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 59% and 62%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 60%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 60%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.39 (Marseille W) v 1.75 (Nantes W) give 61%; 30% weight: 60%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.