USL Championship · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 22:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds (USL Championship, Friday, 30 October 2026) 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with Louisville City 48%, the draw 31% and Pittsburgh Riverhounds 21%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | No |
| Louisville City win | 48% | Pick |
| Draw | 31% | |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds win | 21% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 50% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville City | 30 | 53% | 33% | 63% |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | 40% | 17% | 43% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | 68% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 31% | 33% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 45% | 45% |
| Goal in both halves | 50% | 54% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville City | 70% | 78% | 50 |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 52% | 72% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 66% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Louisville City season stats · Pittsburgh Riverhounds season stats · USL Championship table and form
League. USL Championship has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Louisville City 16 of 30 (7 of 15 at home), Pittsburgh Riverhounds 12 of 30 (6 of 15 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 52% and 44%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 50% and 43%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 47%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 33% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 46%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.23 (Louisville City) v 0.72 (Pittsburgh Riverhounds) give 31%; 30% weight: 42%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 44%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.