First League · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 17:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv (First League, Friday, 30 October 2026) 51% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with Lokomotiv Sofia 36%, the draw 25% and Botev Plovdiv 39%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | – |
| Both teams to score | 52% | Yes |
| Lokomotiv Sofia win | 36% | |
| Draw | 25% | |
| Botev Plovdiv win | 39% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 55% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 12 | 50% | 33% | 83% |
| Botev Plovdiv | 12 | 50% | 42% | 42% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | 64% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 32% | 28% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 43% | 37% |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | 51% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 72% | 82% | 50 |
| Botev Plovdiv | 70% | 78% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 69% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Lokomotiv Sofia season stats · Botev Plovdiv season stats · First League table and form
League. First League has had over 2.5 goals in 44% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Lokomotiv Sofia 6 of 12 (3 of 6 at home), Botev Plovdiv 6 of 12 (4 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 46% and 46%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 48% and 50%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 48%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 33% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 47%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.45 (Lokomotiv Sofia) v 1.53 (Botev Plovdiv) give 57%; 30% weight: 50%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 51%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.