First Division · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The First Division average is 50%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Karmiotissa at 26%, the draw at 28% and Olympiakos at 46%, from expected goals of 0.98 and 1.41.
The league sets the starting point. First Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Karmiotissa have 4 in 6 this season (2 of 3 at home), Olympiakos 4 in 6 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 53% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 0.98 for Karmiotissa and 1.41 for Olympiakos. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karmiotissa | 6 | 67% | 17% | 50% |
| Olympiakos | 6 | 67% | 50% | 83% |
Our numbers give this match a 71% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 28% of two or more. The First Division rates are 73% and 29%. After the break: 79% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 80% and 47%). Karmiotissa's last 50 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; Olympiakos's last 50, 66% and 76%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Karmiotissa season stats · Olympiakos season stats · First Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.