Ekstraklasa · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 19:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa, Friday, 30 October 2026) 53% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with Gornik Zabrze 43%, the draw 25% and Legia Warszawa 31%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | – |
| Both teams to score | 62% | Yes |
| Gornik Zabrze win | 43% | Pick |
| Draw | 25% | |
| Legia Warszawa win | 31% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 54% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 58% | 25% | 75% |
| Legia Warszawa | 12 | 42% | 33% | 75% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | 71% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 33% | 36% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 47% | 48% |
| Goal in both halves | 54% | 58% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gornik Zabrze | 64% | 76% | 50 |
| Legia Warszawa | 82% | 70% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Gornik Zabrze season stats · Legia Warszawa season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form
League. Ekstraklasa has had over 2.5 goals in 54% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Gornik Zabrze 7 of 12 (4 of 5 at home), Legia Warszawa 5 of 12 (2 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 55% and 50%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 52% and 48%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 51%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 60% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 51%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.58 (Gornik Zabrze) v 1.31 (Legia Warszawa) give 55%; 30% weight: 52%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 53%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.