3. Liga · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 3. Liga average is 64%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Fortuna Düsseldorf at 48%, the draw at 25% and SV Meppen at 27%, from expected goals of 1.7 and 1.23.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fortuna Düsseldorf have 6 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), SV Meppen 5 in 10 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.7 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.23 for SV Meppen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Düsseldorf | 10 | 60% | 20% | 60% |
| SV Meppen | 10 | 50% | 20% | 50% |
Our numbers give this match a 74% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 39% of two or more. The 3. Liga rates are 77% and 44%. After the break: 82% for a goal and 51% for two or more (league 82% and 53%). Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 50 games had a first-half goal 64% of the time and a second-half goal 84%; SV Meppen's last 50, 74% and 80%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Fortuna Düsseldorf season stats · SV Meppen season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.