Primera Division · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 00:30 UK time
CompactStats rates FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos (Primera Division, Friday, 30 October 2026) 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with FBC Melgar 62%, the draw 19% and Comerciantes Unidos 19%.
| Market | Our chance | Odds | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.62 | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 2.00 | Yes |
| FBC Melgar win | 62% | 1.28 | Pick |
| Draw | 19% | 5.00 | |
| Comerciantes Unidos win | 19% | 11.00 | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | – | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | – | |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | – |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar | 30 | 60% | 37% | 67% |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 30 | 53% | 43% | 67% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 44% | 44% |
| Goal in both halves | 55% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar | 72% | 82% | 50 |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 62% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 70% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: FBC Melgar season stats · Comerciantes Unidos season stats · Primera Division table and form
League. Primera Division has had over 2.5 goals in 52% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. FBC Melgar 18 of 30 (10 of 15 at home), Comerciantes Unidos 16 of 30 (10 of 15 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 57% and 53%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 55% and 52%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 53%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 20% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 51%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.36 (FBC Melgar) v 1.24 (Comerciantes Unidos) give 70%; 30% weight: 57%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
| Market | Price | Bookmaker % | Our chance | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 57% | -1 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 43% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 46% | 60% | +14 |
Bookmaker % has the bookmaker's margin removed, so it compares directly with our chance. Diff is the gap in points: plus means we rate the outcome likelier than the price does. It is not value or a tip: when we disagree, the bookmaker has usually been right. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from one bookmaker (Bet365) and move all the time.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.