Challenge League · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 19:15. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Challenge League average is 61%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Étoile Carouge at 35%, the draw at 28% and SC Kriens at 36%, from expected goals of 1.2 and 1.22.
The league sets the starting point. Challenge League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Étoile Carouge have 4 in 10 this season (2 of 6 at home), SC Kriens 4 in 10 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.2 for Étoile Carouge and 1.22 for SC Kriens. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Étoile Carouge | 10 | 40% | 10% | 40% |
| SC Kriens | 10 | 40% | 30% | 50% |
Our numbers give this match a 75% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 46% of two or more. The Challenge League rates are 72% and 46%. After the break: 82% for a goal and 54% for two or more (league 81% and 48%). Étoile Carouge's last 50 games had a first-half goal 68% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; SC Kriens's last 50, 88% and 90%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Étoile Carouge season stats · SC Kriens season stats · Challenge League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.