1. Lig · Friday, 30 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Lig average is 52%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Esenler Erokspor at 30%, the draw at 25% and Keçiörengücü at 45%, from expected goals of 1.32 and 1.67.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Esenler Erokspor have 3 in 11 this season (2 of 5 at home), Keçiörengücü 5 in 11 (2 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.32 for Esenler Erokspor and 1.67 for Keçiörengücü. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esenler Erokspor | 11 | 27% | 18% | 45% |
| Keçiörengücü | 11 | 45% | 27% | 64% |
Our numbers give this match a 72% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 40% of two or more. The 1. Lig rates are 71% and 37%. After the break: 78% for a goal and 52% for two or more (league 80% and 50%). Esenler Erokspor's last 50 games had a first-half goal 68% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; Keçiörengücü's last 50, 80% and 74%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Esenler Erokspor season stats · Keçiörengücü season stats · 1. Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.